BMW Championship 2024 Preview, Picks & Analysis

Twelve months ago, Viktor Hovland picked up the BMW Championship title - seven days later he added the Tour Championship and picked up the FedEx Cup and walked away from East Lake with a cheque for a cool $18m.

Inexplicably, the Norwegian then decided it would be a good idea to go away and tinker with his swing. The results were immediate - he lost his game!

Thankfully, common sense would later prevail and he would go back to what he knows best. But this has largely been a year that Hovland will want to forget. And he will head to Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock in optimistic mood after his runner-up finish last weekend in Memphis.

After the FedEx St Jude, we are now down to a field of 50 golfers, which will be whittled down to 30 on Sunday afternoon.

Last year, Hovland made 10 birdies and one bogey for a course-record 61 - including a seven-under-par 28 on the back nine - and a come-from-behind, two-shot victory over Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick at the BMW at Olympia Fields.

"To win at a place like this and amongst the best players in the world, it's pretty cool," said Hovland, whose fifth PGA Tour win moved him from 7th to 2nd in the FedExCup. "And to do it that way, making seven birdies the last nine holes..."

It was the lowest finish by a winner on Tour that season, Hovland’s career low, and the lowest final-round score in the history of the FedExCup Playoffs. He made 12 threes in what was close to a flawless round: 12/14 fairways (he led the field for the week at 43/56), 16/18 greens hit, first in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Scheffler, who started the day tied at the top with Fitzpatrick, three ahead of Hovland and Rory McIlroy, birdied two of the first three holes, three of the first six, and led for most of the day. The last five holes, however, featured a dramatic reversal. Scheffler played them in one over par, while Hovland, playing up ahead, blitzed them in four under.

So what is going to happen this year? Most onlookers will expect it to be a shootout between Scheffler and double major champion Xander Schauffele, and that may well happen. The two Americans have been utterly dominant all year, with Scheffler winning almost at will, while Schauffele finally ended his major hoodoo in sensational fashion, winning both the US PGA Championship at Valhalla and The Open Championship at Royal Troon. What he proved was that he has the game to win on very different courses. Valhalla and Troon are as different as chalk and cheese.

And as good as Scheffler undoubtedly is (and he really is), he has yet to prove that he can master links courses. However, none of that will matter this week as they return to another target golf layout.

So if we are looking for likely winners we should be identifying the men who drive the ball best. And once again, that brings Scheffler and Schauffele into the picture. And if Mcilroy has his driving boots on then he could also be very difficult to beat here.

However, I have a feeling that this is going to be a big week for Patrick Cantlay.

He has won eight times on the PGA Tour and, incredibly, has almost 60 top-five finishes in around 180 starts. In other words, he contends in one of every three tournaments in which he competes. It is an extraordinary record.

So just who is Cantlay?

Cantlay qualified for the 2011 US Open through sectional qualifying. He was one of three amateurs to make the cut along with Russell Henley and Brad Benjamin. Rounds of 70 and 72 over the weekend ensured he was low amateur. His back nine 30 was the best in the tournament and he finished in a tie for 21st. The following week, he recorded the lowest round in PGA Tour history by an amateur when he shot a course record 60 at the Travelers Championship. The week after that, he finished as the low amateur at the AT&T National, finishing in a tie for 20th place. The following week, Cantlay won the Southern California Amateur. He was also low amateur at the 2011 Canadian Open, finishing in a tie for ninth place.

In August he lost to Kelly Kraft in the final of the US Amateur, earning him a place at the 2012 Masters, where he finished in a tie for 47th.

On March 23, 2011 he became world number one in the amateur world rankings, a spot he held for a record 54 weeks.

He turned pro in June 2012 and earned his first victory at the 2013 Colmbia Championship on the Web.com Tour. He would go on to earn his PGA Tour card for the 2013-14 season but played only five events due to a back injury and was granted an 11-event medical extension. He played in just one tournament the following season, in late 2014, but didn't play at all in 2015 or 2016. 

In February 2016, his caddie, Chris Roth, was killed in a hit-and-run accident Roth and Cantlay were out on the town. Roth had been a high school teammate of Cantlay's and had caddied for him in his amateur and professional career.

In his second start of the 2017 season, Cantlay regained his PGA Tour card with a runner-up finish at the Valspar. He finished third at the Heritage, 10th at the Northern Trust, 13th at the Dell Technologies Championship and 9th at the BMW Championship, which allowed him to qualify to the Tour Championship.

In his second start of the 2018 season, on November 5, 2017, Cantlay won his first PGA Tour title at the Shriners on the second extra hole of a three-man playoff 

In 2019, he finished tied for third place at the US PGA but two weeks later he won the Memorial, a result that lifted him into the world top-10 for the first time. Cantlay shot a final round of 64 to come from four strokes behind the 54-hole leader Martin Kaymer to claim his second PGA Tour title.

In October 2020, Cantlay won the Zozo.

At the American Express in January 2021, Cantlay made the halfway cut on the number; and then made 20 birdies over the weekend, including in a 11-under-par final round 61 to post a 22-under total and the clubhouse lead. He was eventually edged out by a single stroke by Si-woo Kim. In June he won the Memorial again and in August he claimed the BMW Championship on the sixth hole of playoff with Bryson DeChambeau. The following week, he won the Tour Championship and was voted PGA Tour player of the year. 

In August 2022, he successfully defended his title at the BMW Championship.

He is no stranger to controversy. He is regularly criticised for his slow pace of play and at the Ryder Cup in September 2023 he allegedly refused to wear a team hat due to a dispute about whether the players should be paid for playing. Cantlay later denied this. The controversy led to European fans openly mocking Cantlay and chanting and singing; "Hats off to your bank account". Cantlay used this as fuel and played superbly during the final sessions of the event.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jason Day, in 2016 by Dustin Johnson, in 2017 by Marc Leishman, in 2018 by Keegan Bradley, in 2019 by Justin Thomas, in 2020 by Jon Rahm, in 2021 and 2022 by Patrick Cantlay and last year by Viktor Hovland.

The Course:

Castle Pines was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Work began in 1979 and the course officially opened at the end of 1981. It is a typical Nicklaus layout, with fairly generous fairways and large greens that feature plenty of subtle breaks and borrows. But there are a lot of trees and plenty of bunkers and punishing rough. Miss the short and prepared and the chances are that you are going to be dropping a shot. In many ways, it is reminiscent of Muirfield Village. It is a monster that can be stretched to 8,000 yards!

Form Guide:

All logic dictates that we should be looking at Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele but Patrick Cantlay is looking for his third win in this event and will not be concerned about the length of Castle Pines.

To Win:

Patrick Cantlay. Due a victory

Each Way:

Rory McIlroy. Big course should be made for him

Each Way:

Sahith Theegala. Has all the shots

Five to Follow:

Patrick Cantlay. Fabulous swing

Rory McIlroy. Much will depend on his driving

Sahith Theegala. Birdie machine

Scottie Scheffler. Impossible to ignore

Xander Schauffele. A year he will never forget