Wells Fargo Championship Preview & Picks

Weekly feature from David Jenkins @ Fettes Management looking at the top players and picks for this week's PGA Tour event the Wells Fargo Championship.

Fed Ex Cup:          Wells Fargo Championship

Ahoy pickers! If you can hit the ball almost as far as you can throw your clubs, watching the Wells Fargo this week. With the financial haul of this week’s tournament at a whopping $6.5 million and a heavy handed slice for the winner totalling $1.17 million AND 500 FedEx Cup points, it’s no wonder the PGA Tour scatters its feed in North Carolina this Sunday while 150 or so parsimonious and penurious pro’s cock fight for prizes. Now that’s worth watching!

Date:                        3^rd – 6^th May 2012

Venue:                   Quail Hollow, Charlotte, North Carolina, US and A

Quail Hollow Club is one of the finest courses in the Southeast and was originally designed by George Cobb in 1961 capturing the beauty as well as challenging terrain of the Piedmont region. It received a full redesign by Tom Fazio in 1997 and again in 2003 and has exquisitely manicured greens following the unusual contours of the hills to challenge the sharpest short game. It’s famed for its’ ponds, creeks, water and rock wall and giant trees and tufted bunkers.

Yards:                      7,442 yards

Par:                           Par 72

Field:                      

The usual PGA Tour suspects are accounted for including amongst the cream “Tonk” Woods (10/1), Jiminy Furyk (20/1), Rory Wozzilroy (8/1) and Rickie Fowler-Depp (40/1 – all Ladbrokes) but amongst this cream there are a few notable absences; there is no Donald; no Westwood; no Watson; no Stricker; no Kaymer and no Rose. GMac has withdrawn while Kuchar is practicing being less friendly. Never mind – if its outsider bets you like look no further than Rick Lewallen at 2,500/1 with Bet365.

Consider…:

For the first time in its nine years as host of the Wells Fargo Championship, Quail Hollow averaged under par in 2011. What has been one of the most difficult par 72s on the PGA Tour achieved a rather benign 71.something. The 16^th, 17^th and 18^th of the Green Mile in particular is where the damage is usually done as average score in 2011 was 1 over par for the three holes! Vital for success at Quail Hollow is putting and scrambling; 10 of the 15 players who shared up to 10^th place in 2011 cracked the top 25 in total distance of putts made. Winner Lucas Glover led that list.

Ones to watch:

Fresh from a water tight 7^th place in New Orleans, his third top 10 in his last eight starts is Arizonian Ken Duke (151/1 with BetFair); he lead the field at TPC Louisiana in strokes gained-putting. Ranks 34th overall on the Tour in that stat. Has had two top 15s in five appearances at Quail Hollow and on current form looks likely to continue that feat in 2012.

Bald North Carolinian Bill Haas (46/1 with BetDaq) is still gunning for his first top 25 since his playoff victory at Riviera in mid-February, a drought that has extended to five starts. But Quail Hollow, as the Beach Boys would sing, gives out good vibrations as he's finished fourth twice, including last year when he led by two after 18 holes. Ranks high in many scrambling stats including scrambling from 30 yards and in and putting from 15 – 25 feet.

Ones to win:

It’s two of the world’s top ten that excite me this week. First up, Lefty - Phil Mickelson (56/5 with BetDaq). It’s his first start since a 3^rd place finish at the Masters, his fourth top five of the year. Phil hasn't missed a cut in any of his eight appearances at Quail Hollow, six of which have resulted in a top 10. He sits 3rd on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained-Putting; second in bogey avoidance and everyone knows his ability to scramble with his quality of his “up-and-downery”.

Finally it’s the only multiple champion on the PGA Tour this season. Hunter Mahon (20/1 everywhere including SkyBet) ranks fifth in both fairways and greens in regulation and lies 39th in Strokes Gained-Putting and 15th in bogey avoidance. Top 25s in each of his last four starts at Quail Hollow signify he knows how to play the game over these links. I predict that he sits as the Boss of the Moss come Sunday.

Trick shots:

Ben Crenshaw mentored Jhonathan Vegas sits with unprecedented high odds for a top ten finish at 23/1 with BetFair – and he had three top tens in 2011 from 18 cuts made.

Nick Watney returns 50/1 everywhere to be the first round leader. Is having a quiet year so far but has it in him to scare the field. Now lets see if he can do it…

Thank me later!