The PGA Championship 2025 Preview, Picks & Analysis

It goes without saying that all eyes will be on Rory McIlroy as he arrives at one of his favourite golf courses and attempts to win the US PGA Championship for a third time. The tournament is being staged at Quail Hollow on a course where the Masters champion has won four times.

He has shot some spectacularly low scores here, including a 62 during the final round of the Quail Hollow Championship in 2010 in what was his maiden victory on American soil. Five years later he won what was now the Wells Fargo Championship and shot a stunning 61.

So he is a shoo-in this week, right? If only golf were that simple.

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For starters, the Quail Hollow that McIlroy and his fellow competitors will be playing this week is going to be a great deal more demanding than the layout they face on the regular PGA Tour. His winning total in 2015 was 267. Two years later the course hosted the US PGA Championship and McIlroy arrived as a warm favourite. The tournament was won by Justin Thomas with a total of 276, just eight under par. McIlroy finished the week in a tie for 22nd place after rounds of 72, 72, 73 and 68.

However, I can’t help but feel that he is most definitely going to be in the mix this time. He has already won three times in 2025, claiming the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, The Players Championship and, of course, The Masters. And with the pressure finally off his shoulders after that memorable Augusta success we could really see him flying. It's therefore no surprise that the career Grand Slam winner is a 9/2 favourite on Betway.

And the great news is that we could be in for a truly epic week. 

Scottie Scheffler left the field trailing in his wake as he won the CJ Cup by a staggering eight shots with a mind-blowing 72-hole total of 253. He was 31 under par. On the same weekend, Bryson DeChambeau, who came so close to winning this tournament 12 months ago, was producing some equally spectacular golf as he coasted to victory at LIV’s Korea tournament. This came after near-misses at The Masters and at LIV events in Miami and Mexico.

It was interesting to note that when the PGA of America sent out an email giving the full field for this week, the image they chose to include was not that of defending champion Xander Schauffele. Instead they chose DeChambeau orchestrating the crowd after another holed birdie putt at last year’s tournament. And that is because they know he is box office.

And there is more to throw into the mix.

We have seen the completion of one career grand slam this year, and another could be achieved at Quail Hollow. A certain Jordan Spieth has already claimed The Masters, The Open and US Open. After winning The Open at Royal Birkdale his game fell off a cliff.

He had always been a wayward driver and it grew increasingly worse. Not only was he missing fairways but he was missing them by miles, visiting parts of courses that nobody else had ever seen. It took its toll on the rest of his game. His iron play suffered, his wedge play began to fail him and, crucially, his wondrous putting touch utterly deserted him. But there have been some signs that the green shoots of recovery are beginning to sprout. He finished third behind Scheffler at the CJ Cup. Although he was never in contention, he drove the ball well and found a lot of fairways. He is unlikely to be among the favourites this week but I fancy him to surprise a few people.

It goes without saying that we can expect a proper European challenge once again, with Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and the seemingly ageless Justin Rose all looking like genuine contenders.

Fleetwood has a wonderful record in the majors but if he has a weakness it is on the greens and he is going to have to hole more than his fair share of putts if he is to have any real chance of winning this week. 

Aberg once again contended at The Masters until a disastrous finish but he has a wonderful temperament and shrugs it all off, dusts himself down and comes back for more. The Swede does not have a single weakness. He drives the ball superbly, is a wonderful iron player and is fearless on the greens. He is a certain major winner and it could well happen for him this week.

Speaking of wonderful iron players, there is none better than Collin Morikawa. He finished second at the Tournament of Champions and was on the wrong end of some Russell Henley brilliance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is a two-time major champion and is ready to claim another.

Picking a major winner is a lottery and this tournament has a habit of throwing up surprise winners - John Daly, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel spring readily to mind.

Tow golfers who fall into that category this week are Andrew Novak and England’s Aaron Rai.

If you are looking for a form horse who will not feature among the favourites on Betway, then Novak is your man. He is currently in the form of his life - and will genuinely believe he can win. He finished tied third at the Houston Open and went one better at the RBC Heritage before partnering Ben Griffin to victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He is a genuine contender.

Rai is loving life on the PGA Tour. And his success should surprise nobody - he is one of the hardest workers, spending hours grinding it out on the range. He possesses a wonderful temperament and is a hugely underrated individual who could well feature in Europe’s Ryder Cup team later this year. 

I don’t often get too excited about the US PGA Championship but this year’s tournament has a very different feel about it. It could well be a classic.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jason Day, in 2016 by Jimmy Walker, in 2017 and 2022 by Justin Thomas, in 2018, 2019 and 2023 by Brooks Koepka, in 2020 by Collin Morikawa, in 2021 by Phil Mickelson and last year by Xander Schauffele.

The Course:

Quail Hollow is a par 70 measuring 7,160 yards. It is tree-lined, features plenty of bunkers and a couple of water hazards, most notably at the reachable par-four 14th and 221-yard par three 17th.

Prize Money:

Total prize money is around $20m, with the winner receiving $3.4m and 750 FedEx Cup points, with 5,000 Ryder Cup points and 10,000 Race to Dubai points on offer if a member of the DP World Tour should win.

How to Watch:

Thursday, May 15, Friday, May 16, Sky Sports Golf, midday; Saturday, May 17, Sunday, May 18, Sky Sports Golf, 1pm.

To Win:

Scottie Scheffler. Back to his brilliant best (9/2)

Each Way:

Rory McIlroy. Loves Quail Hollow (9/2)

Each Way:

Ludvig Aberg. Has every shot in the book (20/1)

Five to Follow:

Scottie Scheffler. Still the man to beat (9/2)

Rory McIlroy. Will be there or thereabouts (9/2)

Ludvig Aberg. Fabulous game and temperaments (20/1)

Collin Morikawa. Fabulous iron player (20/1)

Tommy Fleetwood. Major specialist (33/1)

Five Outsiders to Watch:

Aaron Rai. Hugely underrated (100/1)

Andrew Novak. Playing some superb golf (150/1)

Eugenio Chacarra. Exciting Spanish talent (200/1)

Brian Campbell. Short - but straight (400/1)

Marco Penge. Will be fun to watch (300/1)

What The Bookies Think (2025 PGA Championship Winner)

1. Rory McIlroy (9/2)

2. Scottie Scheffler (9/2)

3. Bryson DeChambeau (10/1)

4. Justin Thomas (16/1)

5. Xander Schauffele (16/1)

6. Collin Morikawa (20/1)

7. Jon Rahm (20/1)

8. Ludvig Aberg (20/1)

9. Joaquin Niemann (25/1)

10. Patrick Cantlay (28/1)

11. Brooks Koepka (33/1)

12. Hideki Matsuyama (33/1)

13. Tommy Fleetwood (33/1)

14. Tyrrell Hatton (33/1)

15. Viktor Hovland (33/1)

This 2025 PGA Championship preview article was written in collaboration with Betway.