Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Preview, Picks & Analysis

Another week and another signature event. The Arnold Palmer Invitational brings together the PGA Tour’s elite stars and they are once again in for a tough test at Bay Hill.

It was widely expected that Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy would lead the way at the recent Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines but both men struggled on what was an extremely difficult golf course. And this week will be no different.

This was the tournament that saw the start of Scheffler’s extraordinary run in 2024, where he would win seven times on the PGA Tour, claim the Olympic gold medal, lead the USA to victory in the Presidents Cup and cap it all off by claiming the Hero World Challenge.

When Scheffler arrived at Bay Hill last year he was without a win in an official PGA Tour event since the 2023 Players Championship. But he put that right in sensational fashion.

He started the final day tied for the lead with Shane Lowry. By the time Scheffler holed from 35ft for a birdie at the 15th, his advantage was six. Lowry could only look on in awe. "There’s probably only a couple of players in the world that can live with him playing like that," he said. "Not sure I’m one of them."

Scheffler’s bogey-free 66 gave him a five-shot win ahead of Wyndham Clark. He picked up a cheque for $4m and would go on to win The Masters the following month.

He had been heavily criticised for his putting, but said: "I know that I can putt really well. It isn’t like I have been a bad putter my whole career. I just had a spell that was tough in 2023. Golf looks pretty easy on TV. When you are out here competing on the PGA Tour, it is difficult. There had been a lot of chatter about my game and where it was at. So it was nice to come here and perform so well under pressure."

Lowry bogeyed the first, second and seventh but was even for his round when taking to the 17th tee. His 72 was good enough for third.

Scheffler will know that he is going to have to drive the ball a lot better this week than he did at Torrey Pines. He has made three starts this season, finishing tied ninth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tied 25th at the Phoenix Open and battled back to finish tied third at the Genesis. In truth, the American has looked a little ring rusty thus far, but nobody really expects that to continue.

There will be huge expectations on Ludvig Aberg, whose win at the Genesis was his second on the PGA Tour and, to be frank, was long overdue.

His win at the Genesis was his 40th PGA Tour start and took him to the top of the FedEx Cup standings and fourth place in the world rankings. He has missed just five cuts, winning twice, finishing second four times, in the top five nine times and in the top 10 on 13 occasions. He is a fabulous ball striker and has a wonderful temperament, and the tougher the course the better he seems to play.

McIlroy has made it clear that he will be reducing his schedule in 2025. The early signs were extremely encouraging. He finished tied fourth at the Dubai Desert Classic despite being nowhere near his best, and then crossed the Atlantic and won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but after starting brightly at the Genesis he tailed off and finished in a tie for 17th place, which was most definitely not what he had in mind. Like Scheffler, he will know that he simply must drive the ball better at Bay Hill if he is to have any chance at all of contending for his 28th PGA Tour title.

While most eyes will once again be on Scheffler and McIlroy, I am expecting big things from Genesis winner Aberg and America’s Collin Morikawa.

Aberg’s performance in winning at Torrey Pines was impressive, to say the least. Knowing he had to birdie the final three holes to have any chance of winning his second PGA Tour title, that is precisely what he did. Make no mistake, the Swede is a big-time player. The only surprise for me is that it took him so long to land his second victory in America. He has shown a remarkable level of consistently since joining the paid ranks less than two years ago. This is a golfer with not a single weakness in his game, and I am looking forward to seeing him at Augusta next month. Last year, in what was his first-ever major appearance, he finished second behind Scheffler at The Masters. It was a remarkable performance but one that surprised nobody.

He may well have won the Farmers Insurance Open in January had he not been struck down by illness, which led to him shooting a final round of 79. It was a bug that also forced him to withdraw from the proceedings at Pebble Beach.

Morikawa is a six-time winner on the PGA Tour. After winning The Open in 2021 he struggled somewhat and had to wait until the Zozo Championship in 2023 for his next victory. Since then there have a host of near-misses but he is very nearly back to his absolute best. This will be his fourth start of 2025. He finished second at the Sentry and tied 17th at both the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis. Bay Hill is a course that rewards accurate driving and good iron play - and Morikawa shines in both areas. His putting stats this year are also extremely impressive.

The Course:

Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,381 yards and is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Bryson DeChambeau was an unlikely winner in 2021 because Bay Hill is a course that demands accuracy from the tee. The rough is thick and punishing and the greens are lightning fast.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Matt Every, in 2016 by Jason Day, in 2017 by Marc Leishman, in 2018 by Rory McIlroy, in 2019 by Francesco Molinari, in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton, in 2021 by Bryson DeChambeau, in 2022 and 2024 by Scottie Scheffler and in 2023 Kurt Kitayama.

Form Guide:

Ludvig Aberg is going to win multiple titles in 2025 and is available at 14/1 on Betway. He was superb in claiming the Genesis and was in prime shape at the Farmers Insurance Open until being hit by a stomach bug.

Prize Money:

The total prize fund is $20m, with the winner collecting $4m and 700 FedEx Cup points.

How to Watch:

Thursday, March 6, Friday, March 7, Sky Sports Golf, 7pm; Saturday, March 8, Sky Sports Golf, 5.30pm; Sunday, March 9, Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm.

To Win:

Collin Morikawa. Ready for another big win (18/1)

Each Way:

Ludvig Aberg. World class (14/1)

Each Way:

Scottie Scheffler. Defending champion (3/1)

Five to Follow:

Collin Morikawa. Game is made for this course (18/1)

Ludvig Aberg. No weaknesses (14/1)

Scottie Scheffler. Going for third win here (3/1)

Rory McIlroy. Must drive it well (8/1)

Patrick Cantlay. Steady start to the season (25/1)

What The Bookies Think (Arnold Palmer Invitational Winner)

1. Scottie Scheffler (3/1)
2. Rory McIlroy (8/1)
3. Ludvig Aberg (14/1)
4. Xander Schauffele (14/1)
5. Collin Morikawa (18/1)
6. Justin Thomas (20/1)
7. Hideki Matsuyama (25/1)
8. Patrick Cantlay (25/1)
9. Tommy Fleetwood (28/1)
10. Maverick McNealy (40/1)
11. Russell Henley (40/1)
12. Sam Burns (40/1)
13. Shane Lowry (40/1)
14. Sungjae Im (40/1)
15. Tony Finau (40/1)

This preview article was written and published in collaboration with Betway.