The American Express 2025 Preview, Picks & Analysis

Players, you have all been warned - this is the last chance saloon. Scottie Scheffler has withdrawn from The American Express at PGA West. And that means somebody else has another chance to win this week.

The man who dominated the PGA Tour in 2024 finished off his year by winning the Hero World Challenge and then suffered a hand injury when he had a Christmas mishap with a broken glass that required minor surgery and necessitated a two-week layoff. It meant that he gave everybody else a chance at the Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. He was due to return to action this week but has decided he needs another week of rehab.

In his absence it is worth asking if he can possibly improve on what he achieved in 2024 when he won seven times on tour, including The Masters, claimed the Olympic gold medal and then finished it all off with a ninth success in the Bahamas? My guess is that his chief focus will be on the majors and he will be looking to add to his two Masters victories.

However, the thing we all know about Scheffler is that he is one of the most consistent players on the planet. Quite apart from all those wins in 2024, he also finished second twice and had 16 top 10s. His worst finish was 41st at the US Open. In 19 starts he did not miss a single cut.

Speaking of cuts. Nobody has had a better run than Xander Schauffele, the world number two, who last failed to make the weekend in 2022! The world number two was scheduled to play here, but, like Scheffler, has withdrawn, meaning that Rory McIlroy, otherwise occupied in Dubai this week, could get a little closer to the leading pair in the rankings by winning the Dubai Desert Classic.

One player who is desperate for a big week is Justin Thomas, who Is struggling to hold on to his place in the top 20 in the world rankings and has not won a tournament since claiming the US PGA in 2022. He managed just one runner-up finish in 2024 and missed the cut at both The Masters and the US Open. But his recent form has been pretty encouraging. He finished tied second at the Zozo in October and third at the Hero World Challenge in December, and there were encouraging signs at the Tournament of Champions, an event he only got into because of his world ranking.

There was a huge upset at this tournament 12 years ago when 20-year-old amateur Nick Dunlap stunned his professional rivals by winning. He was the first amateur to claim a pro title on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson way back in 1991.

He holed a six-foot par putt on the last to claim The American Express title by one shot from South Africa's Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

"It's so cool to be experiencing this as an amateur," said Dunlap. "Whether I made or missed that, if you had told me come Wednesday night that I had a putt to win this tournament, I wouldn't have believed you."

Dunlap is the real deal. In 2023 he emulated Tiger Woods by becoming only the second player to win both the US Junior Amateur and US Amateur titles.

His final round at La Quinta's Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course featured a double-bogey six on the short par-four seventh after he pushed an iron into a lake as his three-shot overnight lead evaporated.

But Dunlap responded magnificently with three birdies in his next nine holes as he closed with a two-under 70 to hold off Bezuidenhout and become just the seventh amateur to win a PGA Tour event.

The South African - who holed a 138-yard wedge shot for an eagle two on the par-four 15th - also birdied the last in a seven-under 65 to set a clubhouse target of 28 under.

Dunlap, who had moved to 29 under with a birdie on the 16th, admitted he was unaware of Bezuidenhout's final-hole birdie and, when he was standing over his second shot to the last, he thought he had a two-shot lead.

His approach leaked right and hit a spectator before coming to rest a couple of yards off the edge of the green. He chipped up to six feet and nervelessly holed the putt after his caddie told him "it's inside left, you've made a million of these before."

The following week he turned professional and would go on to win again at the Barracuda Championship.

There will be much attention of another up-and-coming youngster this week, with the wonderfully-named Blades Brown making his professional debut at the tender age of 17. 

Many pundits are predicting big things for this wonder kid. Born in Nashville, at the age of 16 he broke Bobby Jones’ record as the youngest medalist at stroke play in US Amateur Championship history. Jones set the record at age 18 and it remained unbroken for 103 years. In 2023, the 16-year-old Brown, then a high school pupil shot a course record 64 at the 123rd US Amateur Cherry Hills, tying for first place in the tournament's stroke play portion.

Brown went on to win the 2023 Elite Invitational at the Tradition Golf Club in South Carolina with a final-round 64. He earned entry into the national golf tournament after playing a qualifying round in July 2023, at the Franklin Bridge Golf Club in Tennessee, shooting a 62 in the final round. His impressive performance in the US Amateur opened the door to a sponsor exemption allowing him to compete in his first PGA Tour event, the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic, where he made the cut and tied for 26th, finishing 10 under par. He was the world’s top-ranked junior golfer. 

He was widely tipped to go to university but had other ideas and on December 17, 2024, announced that he had decided to forego college golf and pursue a full-time professional career.

Brown said he was proud of his amateur accomplishments, but wanted to focus on his pro career, saying, "I am delighted to be making my professional debut at The American Express."

His mother, Rhonda, played professional basketball in the WNBA and was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2016 by Jason Dufner, in 2017 and 2022 by Hudson Swafford, in 2018 and 2023 by Jon Rahm, in 2019 by Adam Long, in 2020 by Andrew Landry, in 2021 by Si-woo Kim and last year by Nick Dunlap.

The Course:

PGA West was designed by Pete Dye and has had a facelift since last year. It is a par 72 measuring 7,300 yards. It’s a Pete Dye course, so you know that means there are plenty of water hazards and a great deal of sand. But the fairways are generous, so expect some spectacular scoring. The standout holes are the island green 17th and the fearsome 18th, which also features a lot of water.

Prize Money:

The total prize fund is $8.5m with the winner collecting $1.5m and 500 FedEx Cup points.

How You Can Watch:

Thursday, January 16, Friday, January 17, Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm; Saturday, January 18, Sky Sports Golf, 7pm; Sunday, January 19, Sky Sports Golf, 6pm.

To Win:

Justin Thomas. Needs a win soon

Each Way:

Sam Burns. World-class

Five to Follow:

Justin Thomas. On the way back

Sam Burns. Can go really low

Nick Dunlap. Defending champion

Jason Day. Much depends on his back

Blades Brown. Outstanding prospect