Tour Championship 2024 Preview, Picks & Analysis

Somebody is going to be walking away from East Lake with a huge smile on their face - and a very, very happy bank manager. The PGA Tour season reaches its climax with the Tour Championship deciding who will end the season as FedEx Cup champion and receive a bonus cheque of $25m.

All logic dictates that Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele should be the golfers doing battle for the most lucrative prize in golf. And they will start the tournament at 10 under and eight under par respectively.

Scheffler has had a season that would count as a great career for most tour professionals. He has 12 career wins, with six of them coming in 2024, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, The Masters, the RBC Heritage, The Memorial and the Travelers.

Oh yes, and he also won the gold medal in a thrilling Olympic Games golf tournament.

Ahead of the BMW Championship he had made 17 starts. Apart from all those victories there were also two runner-up finishes,15 top 10s, and 16 top 25s. His season earnings topped $29m. And he now has career earnings in excess of $70m. It is a quite extraordinary body of work by anybody’s standards.

And Schauffele is not far behind him. It is hard to believe that the American began the year widely regarded by many as being the best player never to have won a major. Boy, did he put that right in 2024. He may "“only" have won twice this season but those two victories came at the US PGA Championship, where he came out on top in a thrilling battle with Bryson DeChambeau, and The Open Championship. He has also been second on three occasions, had 13 top 10s and 18 top 25s. Ahead of the BMW he had won $17.6m, taking his career winnings to $56.5m.

When he won The Open it was his 52nd successive cut made. By the time he hole his final putt at East Lake he will have extended that to a scarcely credible 56. The last time had to sit it out at the weekend was at The Masters in 2022. Mind you, Scheffler isn’t doing too badly on that front either. He will end the season with 45 successive cuts tucked under his belt. 

No matter what happens this week, Scheffler has an unassailable position at the top of the world rankings. And Schauffele has set his sights on closing the gap in the months ahead.

He said: "Becoming No. 1 in the world? It's a very big goal of mine and I've been told that were I not for Scottie I would be No. 1. But it's not really good enough, is it? It doesn't take away from what I've done or how I feel. I'm proud with the work that I've put in and with the people that are around me and that have helped me.... I'm just going to keep knocking. That's what I do."

Scheffler is not a fan of the FedEx Cup format, pointing out that the final three tournament skew the entire season. You can be certain that he will change his mind if he wins the Tour Championship.

There are plenty of players in the 30-man field who will go into the tournament feeling they have a point to prove. These will surely include Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland.

Twelve months ago, Hovland was crowned champion after winning the BMW and the Tour Championship. It is well documented that for reasons best known to himself he then opted to tinker with his swing, decision that backfired in the most dramatic fashion as he struggled with his game for much of the year. Ahead of the US PGA Championship he decided to return to long-time coach Joe Mayo and the results were immediate, with a decent run at the season’s second major.

However, it proved to be something of a false dawn before he gave Hideki Matsuyama the fright of his life at the FedEx St Jude and revived his chances of retaining his FedEx Cup title.

Hovland shot a superb bogey-free seven-under-par 63 to win last year. He led by six going into the final round but was pressed by Schauffele, who shot a 62 and closed to within three strokes with six to play.

But Hovland birdied the final three holes to win by five strokes on 27 under and collect $18m.

"It's pretty surreal to be standing here right now," he said. "The gameplan before starting was middle of the green, make a lot of pars and make Xander get after it, which he did early so I had to change my gameplan a little bit."

Hovland and Schauffele had equally fast starts, both picking up four birdies in their opening six holes after a near two-hour delay because of lightning and heavy rain.

The American holed further birdie putts on the eighth, 11th and 12th holes to reduce the deficit to three as Hovland missed chances of his own but also made some crucial par putts.

It looked like the world number five's advantage may be further reduced on the 14th after he hit a poor chip but he sensationally holed a 23-foot putt to save par. 

"That was just huge for momentum because two shots with four holes to go is a lot different from three shots," Hovland said. "And after that I really relaxed."

His fifth birdie of the day came on the 16th, to end a run of nine pars, and he added two more on the 17th and 18th to seal his sixth PGA Tour victory and the biggest win of his career in the season-ending tournament.

By his own admission, McIlroy played dreadfully at the St Jude. Although he denies it, it is hard not to believe that his US Open nightmare, when threw away a golden opportunity to finally end his major drought, has not affected him. He made a decent fist of defending his title at the Scottish Open but then missed the cut at The Open in the most miserable fashion. Having got himself into position to win a medal in the Olympic Games at Le Golf National, he found the water at exactly the wrong time during the final round for yet another disappointing finish.

Yes he won the Dubai Desert Classic and the Wells Fargo Championship, as well as the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in partnership with Shane Lowry, but you can be certain that McIlroy will unhappy with his season’s efforts. He may never have a better chance to win his fifth major than the one he created for himself at the US Open, and I cannot help but wonder what will go through his mind if he ever does contend for another major.

It would, of course, be entirely typical of the Northern Irishman to rip East Lake to shreds. But don’t bet your mortgage on it.

Patrick Cantlay is another who would love to end a largely average year on a high. And he is a former winner, achieving the feat in 2021. This golf course is made for him.

How it Works:

At this week's Tour Championship, the final event of the PGA Tour season, the players start with a staggered score dependent on their standing in the top 30 as they battle to be crowned FedEx Cup champion.

The overall winner will receive $25m (£18.9m) from a $100m (£75.7m) bonus pot.

As leader, Scheffler will begin on 10 under, two shots clear of second-placed Xander Schauffele. However, the world number one has never won the FedEx Cup, despite twice leading going into the Tour Championship.

Hideki Matsuyama starts on seven under, with Keegan Bradley on six under and fifth-placed Ludvig Aberg one shot further adrift.

Three-time champion Rory McIlroy, who qualified in sixth, will begin his four rounds on four under, alongside Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay.

Ireland's Shane Lowry is among five players starting at three under, one clear of another quintet which includes Scotland's Robert MacIntyre and last year's winner Viktor Hovland. England's Tommy Fleetwood is in the group starting at one under, while compatriot Aaron Rai will begin at level par.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Jordan Spieth, in 2016, 2019 and 2022 by Rory McIlroy, in 2017 by Xander Schauffele, in 2018 by Tiger Woods, in 2020 by Dustin Johnson, in 2021 by Patrick Cantlay and last year by Viktor Hovland.

The Course:

East Lake opened in 1908 and was first redesigned by Donald Ross in 1913. Further renovations followed before Rees Jones created the layout that we have come to know back in 2008. However, East Lake has gone through a complete restoration since last year's event, overseen by renowned course designer Andrew Green. The Tour Championship was first played here in 1998. The course is a par 72 measuring 7,346 yards. As the name implies, it features plenty of water hazards. Zach Johnson set the course record of 60 in 2007.

Form Guide:

Every golf fan on the planet will surely want and expect to see Americans Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, the world’s two best golfers, battle it out for the FedEx Cup.

To Win:

Scottie Scheffler. In a class of his own

Each Way:

Xander Schauffele. Closing the gap - fast

Each Way:

Rory McIlroy. Adores this place

Five to Follow:

Scottie Scheffler. A born winner

Xander Schauffele. Year to remember

Rory McIlroy. Wants a BIG finish

Viktor Hovland. On the way back

Hideki Matsuyama. Full of confidence - if fit