How Likely Are You to Make a Hole in One

For any golfer, making a hole-in-one is a milestone achievement that will resonate for a lifetime. It's that fleeting touch with perfection - in a game that by its nature is about the imperfect - and a moment that is on everyone's bucket list.

While skill undeniably helps in the pursuit of an ace, there is also a healthy dollop of luck that needs to be thrown in as well to make this dream become a reality.

Indeed, the shimmering glow of good fortune administered by the golfing gods can often elude even the keenest of players.

Just ask Steve Cheshire, who had played the game for 45 years without ever making a hole-in-one. Well, that barren spell was about to change dramatically when he participated in a stableford event at The Ashley Wood Golf Club in Dorset, where he was named Seniors Captain last month.

Standing on the 4th tee into a breeze, Steve turned to his playing partner with his five-hybrid and uttered: “If I thin this, it’s going out of bounds out the back!”

The 68-year-old said: “It was about 140 yards to the pin towards the back of the green and into a very strong wind. There’s a bunker in front and I hit a skinny shot which I thought might go long but I was unsighted.

“The players on the next tee were watching and one of them came running down the fairway waving his arms in the air, which was rather amusing. I turned to my partner and said: "What’s this idiot doing? He should be teeing off!”

“But of course, he was running towards me, shouting: “It’s in, it’s in!” and I was gobsmacked. After 45 years without an ace, it’s something I’ve reminded almost everyone I’ve played with over the past ten years about, so it was a huge rush for me.

“It was high-fives all round with my playing partner saying: 'I told you it was going to be close!'. I was elated. I laughed a lot because it wasn’t a particularly great shot but it got the result.”

Reflecting on the aftermath when things settled down, the 11.9-handicapper added: “It’s hard to explain what it means to you after breaking a duck after 45 years. It affects the way you think for the rest of the day, and week, and annoyingly, I put the ball back in my bag and I can’t remember which one it is!

“But I’ve got a photograph and certificate from the club and my name on the register of holes-in-one, and that will stay with me forever.

“Our hole-in-one pot had been cleared out in December so there was only £11 left in it! It was £100 for the person before me! I put a bottle of scotch behind the bar and joked that, based on the time taken for my first hole-in-one, I could expect another when I was 112!”

Well, well, well. Just ten days later, astonishingly, it happened again. 

Four rounds had elapsed between 22 January and 31 January, when Steve played with a group of friends at The Ashley Wood. This time, on the 9th hole, he deployed a four-hybrid against the breeze with 150 yards to the flag.

“I could see the bottom of the pin at the back of the green. We watched it bounce and run into the hole and to see it go in was absolutely amazing. What made it more special was that there was a little gallery of four greenkeepers watching, as they’d stopped work to allow us to tee off.

“All eight of us celebrated and I was mobbed by three of my good mates who were made up for me. I was speechless. You wait 45 years for one and then two come in ten days. I’d only ever seen two in my life before that.”

Congratulations to Steve - we're not in any way jealous! But it got us thinking about the likelihood of making an ace.

How Likely Are You to Make a Hole-in-One?

Back in 2017, we analysed 167,000 rounds that had been tracked on Golfshake. These were our findings:

• Handicap 10 < averages HIO every 561 rounds (0.18%)
• Handicap 10-14 < averages HIO every 930 rounds (0.11%)
• Handicap 14-20 < averages HIO every 1287 rounds (0.08%)
• Handicap 20+ < averages HIO every 1890 rounds (0.05%)
• Handicap +4 to 2 averages HIO every 406 rounds (0.18%)

While Steve's achievement is one to envy, there have been golfers who have made two holes-in-one during a single round, including Ann Bache at Edgbaston Golf Club in 2012.

There is no doubt that any hole-in-one is a special accomplishment, but it has proven elusive to many of us out there - including yours truly.

However, Steve's remarkable tale should serve as an inspiration. Keep the faith - because it might still happen for you, and who knows, getting that first one could open the floodgates!

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