The American Express Preview, Picks & Analysis

SI WOO KIM defends the American Express title he won in dramatic fashion last year. The South Korean birdied two of the final three holes to finish an 8-under 64 and see off the challenge of Patrick Cantlay by one shot and earn his third PGA Tour victory. Cantlay would, of course, go on to achieve great things.

A year after Kim shot a 15-over 87 in the first round and quickly withdrew from this event because of back problems, he began the final round with a share of the lead. He admitted that he didn’t sleep much as he prepared to chase his first win since The Players Championship in 2017, a string of 102 straight starts without a victory.

"Every year, I've had a chance, but I couldn't make it," Kim said. "I had a lot of resolve in my mind and I didn't sleep very well."

Kim acknowledged he watched the leaderboard while he played. Six groups ahead of him, Cantlay shot a 61 and surged out of 13th place to the front while breaking the Stadium Course record by two strokes.

"I had to know what's going on, so I knew how to play my game in the final round," Kim said. "I knew Cantlay played really well. I tried to keep patient and believe in myself. I got the chance on 16 and 17, and that's when I could make it. I feel good about myself."

Cantlay's surge still only put him one stroke in the lead, and Kim birdied the par-5 16th to pull even. He then holed a 19-foot birdie putt on the island green on the 17th to move back in front, pumping his fist when the putt dropped.

"I thought I would have a chance at a playoff," Cantlay said after falling just short of his fourth career victory despite his best career round as a pro. "I played about as good as I can possibly play."

Kim wrapped up his third bogey-free round of the tournament - all on the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course - with a two-putt par on the 18th to finish at 23-under 265 in this Palm Springs-area event long hosted by Bob Hope.

"I just tried to focus on my game," Kim said. "I didn't even know I had a bogey-free round today.” Kim joined Collin Morikawa as the only PGA Tour players under 26 years old with three career wins.

Cantlay was in 56th place when the third round began after making the cut on the number, but his 65-61 finish shot him out of the crowded field and nearly led to his second victory of the 2020-21 season.

"I knew they still had a bunch of holes left, but really I put myself so behind the eight-ball on Thursday and Friday," Cantlay added. "I played unbelievable this weekend. I did everything I could. Just going to be a shot short."

Australia's Cameron Davis (64) finished a career-best third at 20 under. Tony Finau (68) finished fourth after starting the final round with a share of the lead in his quest to land his long-awaited second PGA Tour win.

"A couple of those guys just went really low today," Finau said. "I had some opportunities, I think, to shoot a number. But man, I'm kind of leaving today pretty encouraged. I played nicely."

Mexico's Abraham Ancer (66), Michael Thompson (66) and Doug Ghim (69) finished tied for fifth at 15 under.

Cantlay made 11 birdies in the final round, including six in eight holes on the front nine. Cantlay capped his spectacular round with a 37-foot birdie putt on the 18th, pumping his fist subtly for the few fans clapping from their houses near the green. All told, Cantlay made 20 birdies in his final two rounds, offset by two bogeys Saturday. Kim made 13 birdies in his last two rounds.

Cantlay, the 2021 FedExCup champion and Player of the Year, will return, hoping to go one better this year. Ranked fourth in the world, he enjoyed a sensational season in 2020-21 in winning four titles. Apart from the ZOZO, he also won the Memorial, the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship and helped the USA to a 19-9 victory in the Ryder Cup. This is a big year for the American, who will now be looking to add a major to his impressive CV. 

Scottie Scheffler is 14th in the world rankings. The remarkable thing about this is that he has achieved it without winning a tournament on the PGA Tour. He has two Korn Ferry Tour victories to his credit and a bucketload of top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. He also has a remarkable record in the majors - he finished in a tie for fourth at the 2020 US PGA Championship, 18th at The Masters last year, eighth at the PGA, seventh at the US Open and eighth at The Open. He also joined the exclusive 59 club at  the 2020 Northern Trust and made his Ryder Cup debut last September, beating Jon Rahm in the singles. The 25-year-old has no weaknesses - he hits the ball a mile and possesses a wonderful short game and it is surely only a matter of time before he makes that breakthrough win.

Scheffler will take heart from Abraham Ancer's victory  at the WGC St Jude. The Mexican joined the PGA Tour in 2018 and reeled off top-five finishes for fun but was beginning to wonder if he would ever win. He silenced his critics in some style when he won the St Jude, beating Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns in a playoff.

Rahm finished second at the Tournament of Champions, finishing one behind winner Cameron Smith. The Spanish world no 1 had barely touched his clubs since the Ryder Cup but finished the week in Hawaii on 33 under par. He made a record 32 birdies and recorded a course record 61 in the third round. It shows that his game is in rude health as we head into 2022 and he is surely the man to beat this week. 

Tony Finau finally landed his second PGA Tour title when he won the Northern Trust Open in August. After a host of near-misses, it was a huge monkey off the Ryder Cup star’s back.

But the man they will all have to beat is Jon Rahm, who says that he is hungrier than ever and is determined to have an even better year than he did in 2021, and that cannot be good news for his rivals.

Tournament Winners

The American Express was won in 2015 by Bill Haas, in 2016 by Jason Dufner, in 2017 by Hudson Swafford, in 2018 by Jon Rahm, in 2019 by Adam Long, in 2020 by Andrew Landry and last year by Si Woo Kim.

The Course

PGA West was designed by Pete Dye. It measures 7,300 yards and is a par 72. As with most of Dye’s courses, it features lots of bunkers and water hazards, making the most of the natural contours. The sloping greens mean that the man who wins is going to have a hot putter.

Form Guide

It’s difficult to see beyond Jon Rahm, who burst straight out of the gate in Hawaii with 32 birdies and an eagle. He is fit, he is fresh and he is raring to go. Patrick Cantlay won four times last season. Like Rahm, he took plenty of time off after the Ryder Cup. And, like Rahm, he is back bursting with confidence. He spent the winter working hard on his game, and he is now a proven winner.

To Win:

Jon Rahm. The world No1 is hungry

Each Way:

Patrick Cantlay. Looking to kick on

Each Way:

Scottie Scheffler. First win can’t be far way

Five to Follow:

Jon Rahm. Aiming for another huge year

Patrick Cantlay. Has no weaknesses

Scottie Scheffler. Capable of going low, really low

Tony Finau. Brilliant ball striker

Abraham Ancer. As straight as they come

Five Outsiders to Watch:

Rickie Fowler. Has tumbled down the world rankings but is too good to keep struggling

Phil Mickelson. The tournament host still has it in him to win the occasional tournament on the PGA Tour, and this venue suits his game

Justin Rose. Another who is coming off a shocking year but is simply too talented for that to continue

Francesco Molinari. Finally fit again

Will Zalatoris. Ready for breakthrough win