The Open Championship Preview, Picks & Analysis

Post by Sports Writer Derek Clements

THESE are words I thought that I would never write - I believe that Dustin Johnson will win The Open at Royal Troon. And I believe that he will do so easily.

There are those who will point out that his victories in the US Open and WGC Bridgestone Invitational will have taken too much out of him. Everybody is, of course, entitled to their opinion but Johnson is so laidback that you can be certain that after each of these terrific successes, the American will have headed home, perhaps drunk a bottle of beer and will have then gone to bed and fallen asleep without a second thought  as to what had gone before.

Those who reach the very top in any sport are the men and women who are able to shrug off the bad breaks and get on with the job. And nobody has suffered more of those than Johnson. He has thrown away two US Opens, a US PGA and at least one Open Championship - lesser men might never have recovered. Now I am not suggesting that the Dustinator possesses special mental powers. Far from it. His great strength is that because he is not a great thinker then he doesn't dwell on what has happened to him in the past and doesn't fret about what could happen when he gets himself back into a position where he can win again.

There has always been a feeling within the game that if Johnson was ever able to get a first major on the board then the floodgates could really open for him. Around the world, those who know about this sort of thing will tell you that Troon is not suited to Johnson's game because it is a links course that requires patience. One thing Johnson is not short of is patience. Besides, he has the game to bully Troon, or any other golf course, into submission. Yes, he is a big, big hitter, but he also hits the ball straight. And, surprisingly for a big man, he has a beautiful touch on and around the greens.

It seems like only a matter of weeks ago that we were hailing the arrival of golf's new Big Three. Lest you have forgotten, those three were meant to be Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.  There was a suggestion that Rickie Fowler might be capable to muscling his way into the debate.

Day is the US PGA champion and has become a serial winner. He is the world number one, and nobody can argue about his right to be so. Spieth continues to putt like a magician and because of that, he can never be ruled out, but he is fighting his swing.

McIlroy continues to be a puzzle. When he got himself into contention at the French Open you would have expected him to assert himself and claim another title - yet again, he could do no better than a 71 in the final round, however, and never looked like winning. McIlroy claims to be working on various things and hints that he is on the brink of finding his very, very best. Sorry Rory, but you are beginning to sound like a stuck record. And why on earth would you be "working on things" in the middle of the season?

When he is at the top of his form, McIlroy plays with a freedom that we haven't really seen during 2016. And chopping and changing his putting grip cannot be a good thing for any golfer, let alone the most gifted on the planet.

Royal Troon should be made for Fowler, especially if the winds blows, as it surely will. Earlier in the year, I thought he was a shoo-in to win The Open this year but after a flying start to 2016 the American has been at odds with his game recently. Of course, these things can turn around in the blink of an eye. And if he can get switched back on then he definitely has the game to win. Fowler is a rare beast in the modern game - a shotmaker who can adapt to conditions and keep the ball low if the wind demands it.

Time is running out for Henrik Stenson, who has recently turned 40. He did himself few favours by walking out of the US Open without completing his second round but his coach, Pete Cowen, read the riot act to the Swede, who promptly flew to Germany and won the BMW International Open. Stenson is a perfectionist and his big problem is that when things go against him he quickly gets down on himself. Troon is playing softer than normal after a great deal of rain but it is still a links and bad bounces are part and parcel of links golf. If Stenson can take the deep breaths that are required he may yet land the major that his talent deserves.

Outsiders have won at Troon in the past - Todd Hamilton was the unlikeliest of champions the last time The Open was played at Troon. If you are looking for a good outsider you do an awful lot worse than having a little each-way punt of Rafa Cabrera-Bello. The Spaniard's talent has never been in doubt but his temperament has. However, he seems to have all aspects under control this year and has played consistently well for months now, and in the highest company too. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick and Andy Sullivan will also fancy their chances of having big weeks and flying the flag for England. Apart from the United States, no country provides more genuine contenders for the season's third major. Apart from Fitzpatrick and Sullivan, who would be regarded as good each-way bets, Masters champion Danny Willett, former US Open champion Justin Rose and BMW PGA champion Chris Wood would all be regarded as worthy winners. And that's without considering the merits of Lee Westwood, runner-up to Willett at Augusta.

Or Branden Grace, a brilliant ball striker who simply adores links golf, and the harder the course, the more the South African seems to like it. If he putts well at Troon, he could take some beating.

To Win:

Dustin Johnson. In the form of his life

Each Way

Rafa Cabrera-Bello. Could go very close

Each Way

Branden Grace. Always there or thereabouts these days

Fantasy Picks

Dustin Johnson. Has finally got the monkey off his back

Rafa Cabrera-Bello. Living up to early promise

Branden Grace. Has no weaknesses

Jason Day. How can you ignore the world number one?

Rory McIlroy. Which McIlroy will turn up?

Jordan Spieth. If he gets it right from tee to green, Spieth will win

Rickie Fowler. Has perfect game to win The Open

Patrick Reed. Like Fowler, a true shotmaker

Henrik Stenson. It is beginning to look like now or never for the Swede

Matthew Fitzpatrick. Will win The Open sooner or later

(Image Credit Kevin Diss)