2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview, Picks & Analysis

Kurt Kitayama was the surprise winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill 12 months ago. The tournament is now one of the PGA Tour’s signature events and, as such, has attracted the cream of the crop.

Rory McIlroy missed out on victory by one shot as Kitayama kept his composure to secure victory. McIlroy missed a 10-foot birdie attempt on the 18th and finished on eight under after a final-round 70.

American Kitayama birdied the 17th to reach nine under and made a par on the last for his maiden PGA Tour win. "I've been dreaming of this for a while," he said. "I've been close and to finally get it done feels amazing."

Kitayama produced a level-par 72 on the final day which included four birdies, a bogey and a triple bogey.

McIlroy had five bogeys in his final round, which also contained seven birdies as he shot two under on the last day. The Northern Irishman finished tied for second alongside American Harris English.

"It's disappointing," said McIlroy. "I felt like I gave myself a great chance after a birdie on the 13th and then to play the final five holes in one over par, with this jam-packed leaderboard, isn't really going to get it done. It was a battle all day. I felt like I hung in there really well and just came up one short in the end."

American Jordan Spieth made four birdies in his first five holes but, while he had two further birdies, he also produced four bogeys as he carded a final round of 70 to finish on seven under.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler was also on seven under, along with compatriot Patrick Cantlay and England's Tyrrell Hatton.

And Scheffler will fancy winning here again. There is no more consistent golfer on the planet than the world number one. He has battled with his putting stroke of late but he still keeps producing top-10 finishes for fun. There probably isn’t a better striker of a golf ball anywhere in the world and he will be growing frustrated that he has struggled to turn his fine play into more victories. He adores tough golf courses, and they do not come much more challenging than Bay Hill, an unforgiving golf course that boasts actual rough and demands accuracy from the tee. 

When Kitayama won here 12 months ago it was because he kept finding the short grass and hitting greens in regulation, both of which are an absolute minimum requirement to do well here. And it is for that reason that I expect Rory McIroy to struggle. He defied expectations in 2023 but unless he is absolutely on song with the driver, this is a golf course that it totally unsuited to his game.

A revived Collin Morikawa could also have something to say about the outcome. He finally ended his winless drought last year and is beginning to look like the golfer who won two majors. Morikawa is a fabulous iron player but he is also a highly underrated putter and I am expecting him to have a big year.

(Image Credit: Kevin Diss Photography)

And of course it is impossible to overlook the credentials of the sensational Ludvig Aberg. This is going to be a learning season for him as he sees all these courses for the first time. It is still hard to believe that when he puts the ball down on the first tee at Augusta in April he will be playing in his first major. He hits the ball plenty long enough but Aberg is a clever golfer who doesn’t reach for the driver without thinking. He has already demonstrated that he knows all about strategy and that is an approach that is going to serve him well in the months and years ahead.

Another who really should do well at Bay Hill is Xander Schauffele. He is not the longest hitter out there but he is one of the most accurate. Blessed with a wonderful temperament, Schauffele has a fabulous short game and an uncanny ability to be able to shake off bad shots and move on. This golf course should be made for him.

There will also be plenty of interest in the continued progress after back fusion surgery in Will Zalatoris, who proved at the Genesis that he is finally back to his very best.

The Course:

Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,381 yards and is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Bryson DeChambeau was an unlikely winner in 2021 because Bay Hill is a course that demands accuracy from the tee. The rough is thick and punishing and the greens are lightning fast.

Tournament Winners:

It was won in 2015 by Matt Every, in 2016 by Jason Day, in 2017 by Marc Leishman, in 2018 by Rory McIlroy, in 2019 by Francesco Molinari, in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton, in 2021 by Bryson DeChambeau, in 2022 by Scottie Scheffler and last year by Kurt Kitayama.

Form Guide:

Will Zalatoris is looking to kick on after a great week at the Genesis. He has always been a great ball striker but a switch to the long putter has transformed his fortunes on the greens. And this is a course that is made for Xander Schauffele’s straight hitting.

To Win:

Will Zalatoris. Fit and firing again

Each Way:

Xander Schauffele. Impressive in all areas

Each Way:

Ludvig Aberg. Has every shot in the book

Five to Follow:

Will Zalatoris. Solved his putting issues

Xander Schauffele. Course is made for him

Ludvig Aberg. Brilliant temperament

Rory McIlroy. Has to drive well 

Collin Morikawa. Back in business