Golfshake Stats Reveal Odds of Making Hole in One

You have probably seen the hilarious video from the European Tour that challenged Edoardo Molinari to make a hole-in-one with 500 golf balls. Over several hours of increasingly tiring and frustrating efforts, the Italian came agonisingly close to of an ace on a number of occasions, including with the first shot that he hit. Ultimately, facing odds of 2,500 to 1, the former Ryder Cup player wasn't able to successfully complete the task, but he certainly provided us all with entertainment. 

However, it got us thinking about the averages and odds of making a hole-in-one and how they relate to regular golfers. Delving into the Golfshake Score Tracker stats from this summer - in which tens of thousands regularly record their rounds - we have drawn up statistical conclusions as to how likely you are of achieving that most special of shots on the golf course.

Analysis of 167,000 Social Rounds on Golfshake

Handicap 10 < averages HIO every 561 rounds (0.18%)

Handicap 10-14 < averages HIO every 930 rounds (0.11%)

Handicap 14-20 < averages HIO every 1287 rounds (0.08%)

Handicap 20+ < averages HIO every 1890 rounds (0.05%)

Handicap +4 to 2 averages HIO every 406 rounds (0.18%)

From those entries, we had 104 hole-in-ones tracked, including two in a single round from one user! In terms of specific holes, and Molinari was facing the same shot 500 times, the 4th at West Midlands GC saw aces recorded in both May and August, while there were two at South Essex in July, on the 8th and 15th. Golfshake Ambassador, Andrew Picken has made his 2nd this year, and he described that experience in this article. 

Going back to 2013, an 87-year-old made his first hole-in-one Balbriggan Golf Club in Ireland. According to those stats, over 4,000 aces were recorded in the UK in 2012. That year we also saw one golfer beat odds of 167,000,000/1 to secure a stunning two in one round at Edgbaston GC in Birmingham, and a teenager made history by holing his tee shot for an albatross on the iconic 10th hole of the Brabazon at The Belfry. And earlier this year, two golfers in Scotland astonishingly halved a par three after they both made one!

So, the odds of making a hole-in-one are extremely remote, however, the more you play, the likelihood increases. As a mid-handicap golfer, you may need to play well over 1,000 rounds, but it would certainly be worth it should you tick off that most tantalising of achievements. As Edoardo Molinari discovered, it could be a never-ending task, as you require that magical touch of good fortune. But it's the dream that keeps us coming back for more.